2024 Will Change Streaming TV Forever
The two big events to watch for
The expansion is over. Netflix lost subscribers. Disney lost subscribers. Pretty much no major streaming services have launched in years. We have reached the top of the roller coaster. Everybody has tried out their ideas to see what floats. Now it’s time for the winners to eat the losers.
Streaming platforms are about to enter their consolidation phase. All the major players are getting ready for that to happen. But this year is the big long pause before the scramble.
Let's explain, starting with the latest moves by Disney.
First regarding that latest Disney earnings report. Yes Disney+ lost susbcribers overall last quarter. Because it lost the right to stream the wildly popular Indian Premier League cricket. But outside of India and Southeast Asia where it lost more than 3 million cricket-loving subscribers, Disney actually gained streaming subscribers. Including at Hulu which gained 800,000 subscribers. And overall Disney revenue and profits rose. What's more interesting than those figures are the changes Disney is making.
Disney reorganized itself into three main business segments. Disney Parks, Experiences and Products, Disney Entertainment and— ESPN.
Before you jump to a conclusion about Disney selling ESPN, Disney CEO Bob Iger said "But we’re not engaged in any conversations right now or considering a spinoff of ESPN.” He also said ESPN will become a streaming-first business. I interpret all of this, “right now” to mean, they’re going to see what shape they can get a standalone ESPN into and after 2024 decide what they want to do with it.
Why do I keep repeating 2024?
January 2024 is when Comcast or Disney, either one, can force the sale of Comcast's 33% stake in Hulu. Comcast has said before, that it might be interested in buying out Disney's 66% stake instead. Until now, that has seemed like a bargaining tactic. However, Thursday on CNBC, Iger said “Everything is on the table right now, so I am not going to speculate whether we are a buyer or a seller of [Hulu] But I obviously have suggested that I’m concerned about undifferentiated general entertainment, particularly in the competitive landscape that we are operating in, and we are going to look at it very objectively and expansively.”
In other words either Hulu picks a lucrative niche or he might just sell it.
The other big date to pay attention to is April 2024. The agreements around the merger of Warner Brothers and Discovery precluded any negotiations to sell it before April 2024. And lots of people think Comcast might be interested in snapping that up once it's available.
Nobody knows what’s going to happen. But Comcast might get Hulu. It might get HBO Max. Disney might sell ESPN to someone or fold it back into something else. And everybody seems to think Paramount, and therefore Paramount Plus, might get gobbled up as well.
If you think you have too many streaming choices now, just wait, you probably won't think that after 2024.
It’s possible that in 2025 you have three or four big streaming platforms to choose from, each independent of the other, with an array of smaller “add on” niche services like Shudder or BritBox.
But now that we know the table setting. What's your best guess for what happens to Hulu, ESPN, HBO Max and Discovery+? and the rest?